Is Raila sleepwalking to political oblivion?

[Alex Kamotho]

When Raila left the NARC government and orchestrated a successful no vote against the referendum, he set in motion a national euphoria that would turn critical in his near triumphal in the disputed 2007 elections. That he was kingmaker in 2002 led to his perceived status as being powerfully at par with Kibaki.

I admire and respect Raila’s tenacity - his enduring campaign for reform and fight against graft. This now sadly confronts him with a tragic quagmire. Unfortunately and to his bitter realization, his political rise may have reached its zenith-and the nadir is beckoning.

Why do I say this? First the coalition government which he is second in command has failed. Many believed their messiah was Raila. Today as Kenyans witness corrupt scandals and ODM luminaries perceived as culpable, Raila stands accused. Unlike 2007 when he stood on high moral ground and claimed things were wrong because he wasn’t in government, he is the de-facto deputy.

Secondly, that Raila has fallen out with two of the pentagon should trouble him as each represents a strategic voting block. Tragically and in spite of warnings, Raila failed to tame Hon Ruto- a ruthless Machiavellian of no equivalent. Raila was happy to unleash Ruto on his enemies but is now paying heavily in kind.
Is Raila so gullible and easily hoodwinked by euphoria to miss the important details? First he was duped by Moi-remember NDP? Then twice by Kibaki (MOU) and the National accord which greatly favours PNU.Were he to walk away today, Kibaki would reconstitute government without the ODM. With the bounty that goes with ministerial office, there are many takers- overwhelmingly Raila’s enemies who would delight in his political demise.

The unfortunate tragedy of history is that good people don’t win at crucial moments-and Raila’s enemies understand this better than he.
Each of the pentagon individuals’ hold ambitions beyond being Raila’s subordinate-and crucially only self preservation binds them to Raila. Would Musalia Mudavadi for example turn down the premiership were an eventuality to make this a possibility. Asking MPs to resign especially those from Rift valley, Coast or Western would mean losing MPs-further weakening his already precarious position.

Significantly most of Raila’s political associates such as Ngilu, Balala, Nyongo, Orengo, and Joe Nyaga don’t necessarily support him because they believe in anything he represents- but because of what he is able to help them achieve at a particular point in time. The latter three would not be MPs outside ODM- all have at some point been on Raila’s opposite spectrum. If Mudavadi is made PM- and Ruto a deputy PM -Raila’s fate will be sealed. This possibility must not be ignored.

Raila should realize that as many people as support him- so exist others who viciously disagree and dislike him. Many of those who voted for Raila did so because he revolted against a gluttonous government they disliked. As JJ Kamotho once said of Matiba’s Ford Asili, in some Kenyan regions, a dog as ODM candidate would have been elected!

Thirdly while Kenyans supported the coalition government- and tolerated a cabinet of 40, they expected genuine change. The person they looked to deliver was not Kibaki-he represented the status quo they were opposed to. He has failed dismally on this count.

Feted by world powers especially Britain as a new start in Kenya’s governance, Raila now seems unable to confront the ills that bedevil Kenya. He was hoodwinked into basking in the glory of support - and incarcerated by his ego-failed to recognize the severity of the expectations bestowed on and expected of him by his supporters. The day of reckoning is nearing with every corruption revelation about this scandalous government whose activities he supposedly oversees.

That some of his closet allies are today in the spotlight over theft of maize-which impoverished ODM supporters paid dearly for has acted to confirm what many quietly feared-that besides propaganda and a desire to get power at any cost, ODM was merely an egocentric talk shop of chronically power hungry malcontents. Savvy politicians avoid over promising during electioneering period. This is the cardinal sin Raila committed. It’s almost inconceivable he will deliver a tenth of the promises he made in 2007. Kibera remains Kibera. With the tough economic climate hitting hardest his core supporters, Raila is on the wrong side of history. I will say without fear of contradiction that come 2012 the most bitter Kenyans -largely owing to poverty will be those who almost to a man voted ODM.

Fourthly there is a powerful feeling that the older generation has dreadfully failed Kenya. At sixty five, Raila would not claim to be youthful-he may belong to a past no longer relevant. By 2012 Raila’s international supporters such as Britain’s Gordon Brown will most certainly be out of office. A new generation of younger and shrewder leaders will be in-charge. The possibility that American foreign policy dictum would sway in Raila’s favour is a mirage. The world’s political landscape will be different and the desire to do deals with a sixty plus political activist will ill fit with the challenges of then.

If the coalition survives to 2012, Raila will and with great mortification realise that populist politicians are waning in appeal and what Kenyans need is leadership that delivers bread and butter to the many; which he has been unable to deliver in opposition or in government. Come then there will be new political alignments determined to block his ascendancy to the presidency.
Raila’s support for anything foreign from a UN army to restore peace, a foreigner as chair of the electoral commission, to the FBI have shown a man prone to grave judgment that one wonders what faith he has in the Kenyans he so desperately want to lead.

He may wish to learn a lesson from John Howard- once a popular Australian prime minister who lost both his parliamentary seat and prime ministerial position in 2008 -when his views were no longer relevant to the Australian voter.

I am a nondescript Kenyan. Raila or his aides need not heed my counsel; however these may form part of the appendices they will use in writing his political obituary. Hopefully, I will be available to offer my political condolences.



The writer is a lecturer in the United Kingdom.
akkamotho@yahoo.co.uk

[Dan]

Raila is always manipulative, i dont think He is asleep. usione simba amenyeshewa ukadhani ni paka.

[MARTIN]

Raila is a leader he cant be sleepwalking, He has a filter that filters evrything he says only those who hates him kips on repeating what he has done or said.Mahaters washidwe Raila Odinga ni No. moja. PNU comes last.

[GABBY]

This guy ndiye kiboko ..mikora yote..we'll work with him..yes MrPM..geat work..